Prediction Trading Overview

Explains Polymarket’s orderbook-based model, how outcome shares are traded, how pricing works, and how markets resolve after events end.

Prediction markets work differently than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of placing fixed odds bets against a house, you trade outcomes on an open market.

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Markets Are Tradable, Not Fixed

In a traditional sportsbook, odds are set by the book and locked in when you place a bet. In prediction markets, each outcome trades like a market using contracts.

For example, in a market like “Will Team A win?”:

• Yes and No are separate, tradable contracts

• Prices move based on supply and demand

• Prices reflect implied probability

A contract priced at $0.65 implies the market believes there’s roughly a 65% chance that outcome happens.

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Orderbook-Based Trading

Prediction markets use an orderbook, similar to trading on an exchange.

This means:

• You can place market orders to fill instantly at the best available price

• Other users take the opposite side of your trade

There is no sportsbook setting the odds — the market determines price. By default, slippage on Wick for prediction markets is set to 8% for reliable execution.

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You Can Exit Before the Event Ends

Unlike most sportsbooks, you don’t have to wait for the final result.

If the market moves in your favor:

• You can sell your position early

• Lock in profits

• Or reduce exposure if the odds shift

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Resolution After the Event Ends

When a game or event finishes, prediction markets do not resolve instantly.

After the event:

• Polymarket waits for official results

• An oracle confirms the outcome

• The market is then resolved on-chain

This process can take some additional time after the game ends. Once resolved, winning positions are settled and must be claimed directly on Wick Sports Home.